AI & Economy News — 2026-09-28 (Mon) Evening News

Overview

Fitch has warned that ``a slowdown in AI capital investment could push the U.S. into recession,'' while Treasury Secretary Bessent has urged the Federal Reserve to avoid raising interest rates, citing AI's productivity effects.The economic outlook surrounding AI is divided into bullish and bearish ones (PRESS Insider) (Startup Fortune). Behind the scenes of rapidly increasing demand for electricity for data centers and continued expansion of capital investment, the employment collapse of new graduates and entry-level positions is progressing at the same time (Digiday) (NJBIZ). Although the United States and China have begun talks over AI semiconductors, they have excluded them from the tariff truce and remain a focal point of trade tensions (marketscreener.com) (The Business Times).

Macroeconomic/growth trends

Fitch warned that "AI-driven market correction could push the US into recession and global growth below 1%" (ChiniMandi) (PRESS Insider). Meanwhile, prominent investor Michael Burry was reported to have expressed the view that ``AI has become fixed as the lifeblood of the economy, and there is no way out for the government'' (finance.biggo.com). There is also interest in how employment statistics reflect the impact of AI on the labor market (The Daily Upside).

Productivity trends

Economists at Anthropic estimated that ``AI could increase labor productivity by 1.8 percentage points,'' and also proposed the introduction of a ``token tax'' (finance.biggo.com) (BigGo Finance). However, it has been pointed out that while the introduction of AI is accelerating, data center investment does not necessarily lead to employment increases (cio.economictimes.indiatimes.com). Diane Coyle said, "Ultimately, the people who will benefit from AI will be ordinary people" (Agenda Pública).

Trends in employment and labor market

It was reported that the industry has acknowledged the fact that it is "not hiring new graduates or entry-level human resources," and that the recruitment crisis brought about by the introduction of AI is becoming more serious (Digiday). NJBIZ points out that ``AI is erasing the entry-level job ladder'' for new graduates. The urgency of retraining for jobs exposed to AI is also a topic of discussion (Technology Org).

Trends in energy/power demand

Utilities are being forced to respond to the next increase in power demand as data centers transform into "AI factories" (Utility Dive). While the merger of large electric power companies in the United States is a move betting on the expansion of AI-related power construction, it has also been suggested that the focus will be on the impact on electricity rates (EnergyNow.com).

Remarks by central banks, international organizations, and VIPs

- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: Told the Fed that ``there is room to refrain from raising interest rates due to AI's productivity improvements.'' Kevin Warsh, a candidate for Fed chair, said, ``We are fully aware of the productivity effects of AI,'' and stated that the Fed should maintain an ``open mind'' on interest rates (Startup Fortune) (Longbridge). - Headlines about the key figures being tracked (Christine Lagarde, Kazuo Ueda, Andrew Bailey, Kristalina Georgieva, Mathias Cormann, Ajay Banga, Daron Acemoglu, Erik Brynjolfsson) are not included in today's edition. - Regarding the OECD, an analysis showed that Asia's growth rate will diverge until 2027, and that AI-related trade will boost South Korea's growth (IndexBox).

Trends in corporate capital investment

Bridgewater points out that ``the AI capital investment boom requires adoption to scale'' (Top1000funds.com). Goldman Sachs research analyzed that "AI capital investment will increase by 54% in 2027," while "hyperscaler valuations are at the lowest level in the past 10 years" (Fukushi TechFlow). Semiconductor analysts warn that ``memory will account for more than half of AI capital investment, and the ``10-year demand forecast'' is a ``big lie'' (finance.biggo.com). Some analysis suggests that AI hyperscalers are transforming the bond market (Financial Times).

Trade and industrial policy

However, the AI field is not covered by the U.S.-China tariff truce (the Trump-Xi truce does not extend to AI), and the focus is on entities that will be affected in the interim (The Business Times). It was reported that China is considering allowing ByteDance and Alibaba to purchase some of Nvidia's AI semiconductors (TradingView).

Integrated analysis: What is happening now

It appears that the market and authorities are polarizing in their views. While Fitch warns that ``stalling AI capital investment = recession risk,'' Treasury Secretary Bessent, on the other hand, uses ``AI productivity improvement = basis for avoiding interest rate hikes'', creating a tug-of-war between interpreting the same AI productivity effect as both ``risk'' and ``mitigation factor'' (PRESS Insider) (Startup Fortune). Behind the scenes, capital investment (Goldman Sachs forecast a 54% increase) and power infrastructure investment (power company mergers and power grid reinforcement for data centers) are running side by side, and while capital is heavily focused on AI-related infrastructure, this concentration of capital is having a negative side effect on the labor market in the form of job losses for new graduates and entry-level positions (Digiday) (NJBIZ). Semiconductor analysts have warned that ``10-year forecasts for memory demand are exaggerated,'' when read together with Goldman Sachs' bullish capital investment forecasts and falling valuations of hyperscalers, it suggests that skepticism about the sustainability of the AI capital investment boom is growing within the market. On the trade front, the fact that the U.S. and China treat AI semiconductors separately as ``not subject to the tariff truce'' confirms that AI is not just a trade item, but is being treated as a special treaty for security and industrial policy reasons (The Business Times).

Future points of interest

- To what extent will the "AI productivity effect" advocated by Bessent and others be reflected in policy discussions when determining the Fed's interest rates? - How will the compatibility between the 54% increase in capital investment in 2027 predicted by Goldman Sachs and the decline in hyperscaler valuations and skepticism about memory demand be determined? - Will the U.S.-China AI dialogue lead to a substantial relaxation of semiconductor export restrictions, or will friction continue outside the scope of the tariff truce?