Reading the signs of overconfidence -- techniques for observing overconfidence in yourself and others

In Parts 1 to 4, we traced the structure of overconfidence from four angles: why overconfidence is called the biggest trap, metacognitive blind spots, unconscious defense mechanisms, and self-serving attribution bias. These were the "Why Overconfidence Happens" chapters. From Part 5 onwards, we will move on to the chapter "How to notice". The central proposition of this issue is:Overconfidence occurs unconsciously, but its traces can be observed from the outside. That's what it means.language signs (shading of confidence expressions),signs of action (avoidance of verification and quick decision),signs of recognition (一致情報への偏重)、social signs (response to opposing opinions),body signs (Posture and Breathing) - Based on the five points of observation, Joshua Clayman et al.'s confidence interval research, Russell & Shawmaker's judgment research, Philip Tetlock's confidence-accuracy research, Edgar Schein's humble questions, Ekman's microexpression research, Xun Zi's Explanation, and Lao Tzu's Self-Knowledger Ming - Build your observation skills by layering seven points of view.

01Why is the skill to read "signs" necessary?

Overconfidence occurs unconsciously. This was the structure we followed up to the third session. If overconfidence is difficult to eliminate through conscious introspection, what is needed instead?Techniques for observing the traces left by overconfidence from the outside is. Traces, whether our own or those of others, appear in observable ways. Training to see this is the subject of this episode.

There are two premises for this article. Firstly,Overconfidence is not hidden. It is "hard to see", not "invisible". Traces remain in the form of language, actions, bodies, and social reactions. Second,Observation can be learned if you have the tools.. By converting signs into vocabulary, you can see things that you didn't notice before. This is of the same nature as the experiential knowledge accumulated over many years in medical diagnosis, quality control, and criminal investigation.

"Overconfidence in expert judgment is often not hidden, but simply hidden because the observer lacks vocabulary. Once we have a word to describe the signal of overconfidence, traces that we had previously overlooked suddenly come to the foreground." - J. Edward Russo & Paul J. H. Schoemaker, "Decision Traps" (1989) Purpose

本回が提供するのは、まさにその語彙です。五つの観察軸 ── 言語・行動・認知・社会・身体 ── それぞれに、過信が残す特徴的なパターンがあります。これらを意識的に観察する訓練が、自分の過信に対する早期警報装置になり、同時に他者の過信を理解する非難なき観察力になります。

02Signs of language ─ shading of expressions of confidence

Overconfidence manifests itself most clearly when we verbalize our judgments. US judgment researchers joshua clayman and jack sole showed in their 1999 paper "Overconfidence: It depends on how, what, and whom you ask" that how people express their confidence is directly linked to the core of overconfidence. The key to their discovery confidence interval The width of

"If you ask someone to give a range of answers that you are 90% sure about, the probability of a correct answer falling within that range is actually only 30-60%. People unconsciously set their confidence intervals much narrower than they actually are. Expressions such as 'definitely,' 'definitely,' and 'definitely will be' are the most typical linguistic traces of overprecision." -- Klayman, Soll, Purpose from González-Vallejo & Barlas (1999)

Signs of language are adverbs and modifiers expressing confidence. Density Appears on. When you have a vocabulary of observation, these things will show through, both in what you say and what others say.

When these expressions appear, it doesn't necessarily mean that we are really sure. rather There is a psychological need to strongly express one's convictions. Very likely. The first etiquette in this article is to practice internally asking yourself, what is the actual confidence interval for the judgment when you or someone else uses these expressions in the field of material evaluation?

03Behavioral Signs - Verification avoidance and hasty decision making

Overconfidence also leaves traces in your actions.J. Edward Russo and paul showmaker 's 1989 business decision study, Decision Traps, described three behavioral patterns common to overconfident decision makers.

These three behavioral patterns are efficient judgment style It is experienced as. Fast, decisive, and unwavering -- these are qualities that are often admired. That's why observers need to look for the shadow of overconfidence in those same traits.A quick decision and a decision are superficially similar, but the latter is a conclusion based on searching for contrary information, while the former omits it.. The practice of this section is to train you to discern the differences.

04Signs of cognition: Overemphasis on matching information

Signs at the cognitive level behind behavioral bias Confirmation Bias is. british psychologist peter wason (1924–2003) demonstrated this phenomenon in his 1960 paper ``On the failure to eliminate hypotheses in a conceptual task,'' which became one of the central concepts in judgment research for the next half century.

"When testing a hypothesis, people preferentially gather information that is consistent with the hypothesis, and show systematic resistance to gathering information that contradicts the hypothesis. Logically, even though the search to disprove a hypothesis yields more information, people tend to choose confirmation over falsification." - Peter Wason, Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology (1960) Purpose

Confirmation bias leaves traces that can be observed from the outside. When a judge talks about information, how much information that is consistent with that judgment is foregrounded, and how much contradictory information is mentioned -- just looking at the ratio reveals cognitive bias.

These three signs are important to the individual. talking logically It is experienced through the senses. Therefore, observation requires skill. As a practice in this section, when talking about judgment,その人が "矛盾する情報" を何回口にしたかをカウントする Suggest training. If you keep getting zero times, it's a strong sign of confirmation bias. This can be used both to observe others and to reflect on yourself.

05Social Signals -- Reactions to Opposition

Overconfidence leaves its mark even within a group. Mentioned in Part 1 Irving Janis Groupthink research has shown that overconfidence within organizations How to handle opposing opinions showed that it appears most clearly in

Organizations with strong groupthink have several observable symptoms. There is an atmosphere in which it is difficult to raise opposing opinions at decision-making meetings. Those who express minority opinions are criticized as ``opposing for the sake of opposing'' and ``breaking the discussion.'' Early in the meeting, there is a sense that the direction is set. These are also organizational manifestations of Klein's projective identification, which I dealt with in Part 3.

"There are clear external signs of an organization in which groupthink is functioning: overreaction to dissent, self-censorship, disregard for outside information, a sense of superiority over 'us,' and underestimation of risk. When these things come together, the group's judgment is often worse than that of its individual members." - Irving Janis, Groupthink (2nd ed., 1982)

Social cues can be observed both in our own judgments and in the judgments of others. At meetings, how do you listen to whose opposing opinions? How are the opposing opinions I raise treated? Even if you don't leave a record, there are traces that you can notice when you look back.

06Body signs -- posture, breathing, gaze

Overconfidence also leaves traces on the body. American psychologist Paul Ekman (1934–)'s research on emotions, particularly microexpressions, systematized short-term emotional expressions that people cannot consciously control. Overconfidence leaves a contradiction between the willful feeling of avoiding validation and the slightest doubt in the form of subtle movements in the body.

However, physical signs should be treated with caution. As Ekman repeatedly warned,Inferring emotion or cognitive state from a single physical sign is unreliable. The combination of multiple signs and understanding the context support the accuracy of observations.

Physical signs can also be used as clues to monitor your own condition. By paying attention to whether your own breathing becomes shallow or whether your posture becomes stiff as you make decisions, you may be able to detect the moment when a switch of overconfidence is turned on. The physical techniques from the previous series, ``To Gain Confidence,'' and the physical observations in this episode are a pair.

07Reading other people's overconfidence -- a study of Tetlock's confidence and accuracy

The empirical basis of the technique for observing overconfidence in others was mentioned in Part 1. philip tetlock in a long-term study. The most practical part of his discovery was"Overconfident forecasters can be identified by their expression of confidence." That's what it means.

"After 20 years of research, we have found that there is a weak negative correlation between the expression of confidence and the accuracy of predictions. Experts who predict with confidence that ``it will definitely happen'' are more likely to miss. Conversely, experts who say ``we should consider several scenarios'' and ``the probability is about '' were more accurate over the long term.'' - From Philip Tetlock's Expert Political Judgment (2005)

In 2015's Superforecasting, Tetlock describes a forecaster who is not overly confident. super predictor ── We have organized the linguistic features of. The language they use contrasts with that of overconfident forecasters.

The implications are direct for material reviewers.Just by observing how colleagues and superiors talk about their judgments in terms of verbal expressions of confidence, we can fairly infer the degree of overconfidence.. This is not an observation to criticize the judge, but an observation to correct the confidence interval of the judgment by oneself. It may not be appropriate to perform the same external risk assessment for a case that is said to be ``absolutely okay'' and a case that is said to be ``there is a 30-40% chance that a problem may occur.''

08Xunzi and Laozi ── Etiquette of self-knowledge

The technique of observing overconfidence in oneself and others is not something that modern psychology discovered. Ancient Chinese thinkers had already observed the same place more than two thousand years ago.Xunzi The story of Xunzi (circa 3rd century B.C.) is based on human judgment. What is it covered by (= becomes invisible)? This is a book that systematizes the

“Everyone's suffering is hidden by a single song, and the darkness does not come to Dali.

What Xunzi shows is that human judgment is always a crooked perspective It is a universal proposition that one can turn one's attention away from the whole reason. The ``ways of being hidden'' that he enumerated in his unraveling chapter can be said to be the forerunners of modern cognitive bias research: being hidden by desire, being hidden by aversion, being hidden by the beginning, being hidden by the end, being hidden by distance, being hidden by proximity, being hidden by breadth, being hidden by shallowness, being hidden by the past, and being hidden by the present. These are all cognitive distortions that have been rediscovered in modern judgment research.

Xunzi's prescription is“If all things are different, that is, they do not contradict each other.” ── Things always have different points of view, so if you stick to one point of view, it will always be obscured. As a manner of observation,Habit of reviewing one's decisions from an opposing perspective stand up. This is an ancient recipe for confirmation bias.

Chapter 33 of Lao Tzu's Tao Te Ching takes a verse that has been quoted several times in this series, but once again points to it from a different angle.

“Those who know others are wisdom, and those who know themselves are ming (knowledge of knowledge, ming of self-knowledge)” - Lao Tzu, Tao Te Ching, Chapter 33

Rereading it in the context of this episode, Laozi's "wisdom of acquaintances" is Techniques for reading signs of overconfidence in others, "self-knowledge person" is Techniques for reading signs of overconfidence is. The two are different abilities, and the latter is more difficult to master. This is consistent with Tetlock's finding that it is relatively easy to evaluate the predictions of others, but it is much more difficult to accurately estimate the accuracy of one's own predictions. The observation diary, which will be discussed in the final section of this article, is a practice for honing this direction of ``light''.

09At the pharmaceutical site ── 4 scenes of observation

Bringing abstract theory to the field. In the daily life of a material examiner, we will identify four specific situations where five signs (verbal, behavioral, cognitive, social, and physical) can be observed simultaneously. Each can be applied to either oneself or others as the object of observation.

これらの場面は、観察のための実験室です。自分自身を観察対象とすると、判断の最中は気づきにくいですが、振り返りの段階では痕跡が残っています。記録を残すと、観察の精度は飛躍的に上がります。次節がその実践です。

10How to write an observation diary ─ 4 questions

The art of reading signs of overconfidence is observation. habit It will be learned most efficiently if you cultivate it as a child. As a final practice in this article, we will propose a method for recording reflections on decisions in an observation diary. Each question takes about 3 minutes and involves answering four questions.

The effects of making the four questions a habit will appear in two stages. In the short term, your self-evaluation of past decisions changes. The resolution of self-awareness increases from ``I made perfect decisions'' to ``There were some moments when my confirmation bias was turned on.'' In the long term, these questions will automatically come to mind while making decisions, and the quality of the decisions themselves will change. This is a method that also functions as a preliminary step to the calibration training that will be covered in Part 8.

Overconfidence occurs unconsciously, but its traces can be observed from the outside - this was the central proposition of this episode. Linguistic signs (Klayman et al.'s confidence interval research), behavioral signs (Russo & Schoemaker's judgment research), cognitive signs (Wason's confirmation bias), social signs (Janis' groupthink), physical signs (Ekman's facial expressions), signs of overconfidence in others (Tetlock's confidence-accuracy research), Xunzi's clarification and Laozi's self-knowledge ── Seven perspectives in different words Overconfidence isn't hidden, it's just a lack of vocabulary for observation. It was pointing to the same place.

The previous four chapters were about "Why overconfidence occurs." From this issue onwards, we will move on to the "how to notice" chapter. In the next installment (part 6), we will expand the scope of our observations to include the time axis. Why you can't learn from failure. Why do we not learn from past judgment errors that lead to updating our judgment frameworks? Tracing hindsight bias, organizational learning difficulties, and Argyris's single/double-loop learning, we dissect the structure by which overconfidence impedes learning.