AI & Economy News — 2026-09-19 (Sat) Evening News

Overview

Musk claimed that AI could double US GDP growth to 4% next year, and UBS predicted that AI capital investment would reach about $1 trillion in 2026 and $1.4 trillion in 2027 (Investing.com) (fool.com). Data center power demand has become an election issue, and Trump-Xi talks will feature AI, tariffs, and rare earths (The Statesman) (The Center Square).

Macroeconomic/growth trends

Musk has claimed that AI will double US GDP growth to 4% next year, which is said to be significantly higher than mainstream forecasts (finance.biggo.com) (Yahoo Finance). It has been pointed out that the S&P 500 is in a state of "excess profits" and that the next market phase will depend on what will be the driving force behind AI capital investment (The Dark Side Of The Boom). An adviser to the People's Bank of China said AI could deepen the imbalance between supply and demand (TradingView).

Productivity trends

A study was introduced (Purdue University) showing that there are differences in how farmers in the United States and Argentina perceive the benefits of AI. Diane Coyle said, "Ultimately, ordinary people will benefit from AI" (Agenda Pública). An essay has been published stating that AI transformation is ``not a product announcement'' (The AI Economy | Ken Yeung).

Trends in employment and labor market

Concerns about job losses due to AI outweigh expectations about job creation, a survey has found (Euronews.com). A CBS News poll found that Americans want AI development to slow down, but not stop (CBS News). Scale AI founder Lucy Guo said AI is making people work longer hours, saying, "I worked 26 hours a day" (Fortune). In Malaysia, it was reported that there are concerns about disruption in the job market due to AI (The Edge Malaysia).

Trends in energy/power demand

There were reports that the Trump administration and AI data centers are pushing nuclear power (EnergyNow.com). Google and Nvidia have announced that they will reduce power consumption in their data centers to prevent power outages (Korben). It was reported that the Trump administration will spend $200 million on Oklo and X-Energy to power AI data centers (Stocktwits). There are also reports that data centers and AI are increasing as election issues (The Center Square).

Remarks by central banks, international organizations, and VIPs

An adviser to the People's Bank of China said AI could deepen the imbalance between supply and demand (TradingView). No specific statements regarding the tracked dignitaries (Lagarde, Ueda, Bailey, Georgieva, Cormann, Banga, Acemoglu, Brynjolfsson) could be found in the headlines.

Trends in corporate capital investment

UBS predicted that AI capital investment will reach approximately $1 trillion in 2026 and approximately $1.4 trillion in 2027 (Investing.com) (Fudu Niu Niu). UBS further predicted that 90% of incremental growth in 2026 will be driven by rising memory prices (Fudu Niu Niu). Nvidia's Jensen Huang reaffirmed his forecast on the same day a year ago that AI infrastructure investment will reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion by 2030 (fool.com) (Pluang).

Trade and industrial policy

The talks between Trump and Xi Jinping are expected to include tariffs, AI, and rare earths, with the US side ruling out an agreement on export controls (The Statesman) (Telegraph India). It has been pointed out that the previous Trump-Xi AI talks did not produce any results, and this time is said to be "Round 2" (The Next Web). US Treasury Secretary Bessent is said to hold talks with China's He Lifeng on AI, trade, and rare earths (KELO-AM). California plans a “kill switch” system for AI development companies (Capital Brief).

Integrated analysis: What is happening now

It can be seen from the headline that UBS and Nvidia's capital investment forecasts ($1 trillion to $3-4 trillion in 2030) are going hand in hand with investments in power infrastructure ($200 million for nuclear/Oklo/X-Energy). The increasing demand for electricity from data centers has become an issue in the election, and regulations at the state level (California's kill switch) have begun, and it appears that the expansion of capital investment and the policy brakes are taking place at the same time. On the other hand, Musk's statement of a ``4% GDP growth rate'' diverges from mainstream forecasts, and when combined with the S&P 500's indication of ``excessive returns,'' there is a possibility that there is a gap between expectations for AI capital investment and the ripple effect on the real economy. On the employment front, there are both ``concerns about job losses due to AI'' and voices saying ``AI is actually increasing working hours,'' and it appears that the impact on the labor market has not yet been determined. On the trade front, the Trump-Xi talks are designed to deal with AI, tariffs, and rare earths as one, suggesting that AI supply networks (semiconductors and rare earths) and geopolitics have become inseparable.

Future points of interest

- To what extent will the capital investment forecasts ($1 trillion to $4 trillion) shown by UBS and Nvidia be supported by future quarterly results and actual investment execution? - How will the outcome of the Trump-Xi talks affect export restrictions on AI and semiconductors and the supply of rare earths? - Will state-level regulations regarding data center power demand (such as California's kill switch) spread to other states?