Educational·10 episodes total

AI and the Economy── Productivity, jobs, investment, competition and health economics, read through evidence and institutions, in 10 episodes

Where does AI change the economy, and by how much? Across ten episodes this series works through productivity, jobs, cost structure, investment, market concentration, international competition, and the economics of healthcare and pharma, using only empirical studies and institutional facts. Forecasts are shown with their sources and assumptions, never as certainties.

Concepts — what is changing

AI as a General-Purpose Technology — What the Productivity J-Curve Reveals

Why AI investment has not yet moved productivity statistics, explained through general-purpose technology theory, the J-curve hypothesis, and the historical record of steam and electricity.

AI and Productivity — From +14% to −19%, What the Studies Actually Show

A review of firm-level AI experiments and macro estimates, explaining why effect sizes range from +34% to −19% and GDP forecasts diverge tenfold.

AI and Jobs — 80% of Workers Have Tasks Exposed

Analyzing AI's employment impact at the task level rather than the occupation level. Covers Eloundou's exposure research, the IMF estimate, Japan's labor-market conditions, and implications for pharmaceutical roles.

Practice — what is happening in the economy

The Cost Structure of AI — Training at $78 M, Inference Down 280×

An analysis of AI's four cost drivers—training, inference, power, and data—as the economics of a high-fixed-cost, falling-marginal-cost industry, with implications for pharma and healthcare.

The AI Investment Wave — $700 Billion a Year Flowing into Data Centers and Power

The four largest cloud companies will spend over $700 billion in 2026 capex. This article traces how that capital flows through semiconductors and power, and examines the widening gap between investment and revenue.

AI and Market Concentration — FTC, CMA and JFTC Raise Three Competition Risks

Examines the structural forces concentrating the foundation model market and compares competition policy responses from the FTC, CMA and JFTC, including the risk that regulation entrenches first movers.

AI and International Competition — CHIPS Act, Export Controls and the EU AI Act

Compares US CHIPS Act subsidies, China export controls, the EU AI Act and Japan's AI Promotion Act, and examines their impact on pharmaceutical supply chains and cross-border data transfers.

Healthcare, pharma and outlook

AI and Health Economics — Can the $2.2 Billion-Per-Drug Model Change?

Examines whether AI can alter the $2.2 billion-per-drug cost structure using Deloitte, FDA, and NICE data, and explains the CHEERS-AI framework for evaluating AI health technologies.

AI and the Pharma Business Model

AI has reversed Eroom's Law at the preclinical stage, but clinical trials and drug pricing regimes constrain how far the pharma cost structure can change.

Distributing the AI Economy and the 1.6-Point Drop in Labour Share

Analyses the structural decline in labour share and how AI amplifies it, then examines the evidence on robot taxes, UBI experiments, and pharma workforce redeployment.