Freud's self-regulation and defense mechanisms -- unconscious structures that support overconfidence

In the second session, "Blind Spots in Metacognition," we will discuss Dunning and Kruger's experiments as a starting point.don't know what you don't know We followed studies that measured the construct. This time we'll go beyond that -- why don't we try to see the boundaries of our own knowledge? Experimental data in psychology can measure what you can't see, but another intellectual tradition holds the answer to why you don't see it.Sigmund Freud (1856–1939)'s psychoanalysis, his daughter anna freud (1895–1982), a defense mechanism systematized by Harvard University. George Vaillant (1934–2022) demonstrated the maturity of defense through a 75-year longitudinal study, and Melanie Klein's (1882–1960) object relations theory -- these five perspectives show:Overconfidence is not a phenomenon that occurs on the surface of consciousness, but an unconscious function to protect the ego. This is the structure. This time, we will look for the roots of overconfidence deep within our hearts.

01Why read Freud to talk about overconfidence?

Modern empirical studies such as Kahneman, Moore and Healy, and Tetlock have shown that “What is overconfidence?” “When does it occur?” “How widespread is it?” There were three questions. Quantitative data can answer these questions. However, another question remains... “Why don’t we see the bias in our own judgment?”. This question cannot be answered by simply observing behavior. We need an intellectual tradition that deals with what is happening beneath consciousness.

Freud's psychoanalysis is the foundational theory of 20th century psychology, and it has also been one of the most heavily criticized. Some of his clinical hypotheses have not been supported by modern empirical research and have undergone many revisions. but,"The majority of human decisions are made outside of consciousness." This fundamental proposition is a strong discovery that has been independently reconfirmed by modern cognitive psychology, neuroscience, and social psychology. Kahneman's dual-process theory (System 1 / System 2), Wegner's illusion of conscious will (1999), Bargh's automaticity studies (1994) -- all point to the same place in different words.

“The ego is not the master of its own house (Das Ich ist nicht Herr in seinem eigenen Haus)” - Sigmund Freud, Introduction to Psychoanalysis (1916–17), Lecture 18

フロイトのこの一句は、過信に気づくシリーズの理論的核心と直結します。The subject of judgment is not consciousness, but the unconscious structure that operates underneath it.. That's why even if you consciously decide to be careful, overconfidence itself won't decrease. The phenomenon that ``knowledge does not eliminate overconfidence'' that Kahneman warned about in ``Thinking, Fast and Slow'' is a natural consequence of rereading Freud's proposition. This episode summons Freud because of overconfidence. root There is nothing else to do.

02Consciousness, preconsciousness, and unconsciousness -- topographical map of the mind

Freud's first model of the mind wastopographical model It is called. This schema, codified in Die Traumdeutung (Die Traumdeutung) in 1900, distinguished the mind into three layers.

Freud's most shocking proposition was thatConsciousness is only the tip of the iceberg, and most decisions are the result of emerging from the unconscious. That's what it means. The implications for materials examiners are profound - being able to consciously explain, ``I made this judgment on these grounds'' may only be a small part of the judgment.The real motive lies elsewhere, and the motive is not visible to the person.。

What is important in the context of understanding overconfidence is thatThe unconscious mind is not a passive storehouse, but actively controls the conscious mind. That's the point. Information that causes pain or fear is "pushed back" from consciousness by the unconscious. This is the premise for the defense mechanism we will discuss next.

03Id, ego, superego ── Structure theory of mind

In 1923, Freud supplemented the local theory. structural model will be published in ``Das Ich und das Es''. heart 三つの審級 This is his most influential diagram, divided into three parts.

The key to structural theory isThe ego is the most contradictory judge with pressure from three directions. That's what it means. The id demands ``satisfy your urges,'' the superego commands ``forbidden,'' and the reality of the outside world pressures you to ``adapt.'' The ego is constantly making decisions between these three in a state of tension.

The decisive proposition for understanding overconfidence appears here. The ego uses unconscious strategies to withstand this tension.. If the tension is too strong, the ego will be destroyed (manifested as neurosis/psychosis). Therefore, the ego has a device for alleviating tension. The device will be dealt with in the next section. defense mechanism is.Overconfidence is one of the ego's unconscious strategies to protect itself from three-way pressure. ──This is the central proposition of this issue.

04What is a defense mechanism? - Systematized by Anna Freud

It was her daughter who systematically organized the defense mechanisms that her father Freud had outlined. anna freud is. His 1936 book Das Ich und die Abwehrmechanismen (Das Ich und die Abwehrmechanismen) remains a standard reference work in modern psychiatry and clinical psychology.

"Defense mechanisms are unconscious operations used by the ego to protect itself from anxiety and pain. They do not appear only in pathological conditions, but are part of the daily functioning of healthy people. The difference lies in which mechanisms are used and with what intensity." - Anna Freud, The Ego and Defense Mechanisms (1936), Purpose from the Preface

Three propositions presented by Anna Freud are the key to understanding this episode.

Implications directly related to the overconfidence argument are propositions 1 and 3.The reason we don't recognize when we're overconfident is not a problem of intelligence or caution, but a function of a defense mechanism.. And since these defenses support ego stability in the short term, they cannot be easily let go. In order to reduce overconfidence, you first need to understand why it is so difficult to let go.

05Key Defense Mechanisms: Denial, Rationalization, Projection, Intellectualization, and Repression

アンナ・フロイトは 10 種類前後の防衛機制を整理しましたが、過信の議論に直接関わる五つを取り出します。それぞれが、自分の判断の偏りから自我を守るために働きます。

これら五つはいずれも、本人が "私はいま防衛機制を使っている" と意識することはありません。気づかないからこそ、機能する。Conscious defenses no longer function as defenses --This paradox is at the heart of the difficulty in dealing with overconfidence.

06防衛機制が過信を支える構造

前節の五つの機制が、どのように過信を維持するか。具体的な連鎖を見ます。Overconfidence is not an isolated phenomenon, but a state maintained by multiple defense mechanisms working together. This is a structural perspective.

A typical chain goes like this. First, we receive information from outside that contradicts our own judgment. Second, if you take that information seriously, it will hurt your ego, so first of all, denial and doubt the validity of the information ("the data is unreliable"). Thirdly, if there are parts that cannot be denied,rationalization is activated, and I construct an afterthought as to why my decision was correct (``I didn't have that information at the time''). Fourthly, the feeling of discomfort that still remains is projection forwarded to others by ("That person is too critical"). Fifth, the flight to more abstract discussions (intellectualization) or painful memories. suppression will be the last barrier.

“Overconfidence is a defense for the ego. result and not the cause. People who feel that they are right do not feel that way because they are truly right, but because they need to feel that way to protect their ego.'' - George Vaillant, The Wisdom of the Ego (1993) Purpose from Chapter 1

This proposition by Vaillant defines the structure of overconfidence in one line.Overconfidence is a "successful state" of the ego's defense mechanism.. When the ego is protected from threats, the result is a sense of ``I'm right.'' And that feeling is experienced as a fact for the person in question. So there is no doubt about it.

Implications guide techniques for dealing with overconfidence. Rather than attacking overconfidence itself directly, identify the defense mechanisms that operate underneath it one by one.. This is the basic theory of practice that will be covered in Parts 8 and 10 of this series.

07Vaillant's long-term demonstration ─ Maturity of defense mechanisms

Psychoanalytic theory has long been criticized for its lack of empirical evidence. The person who changed that situation was a psychiatrist at Harvard University. George Vaillant took over Harvard Study of Adult Development is. The longitudinal study, which began in 1939, followed 268 men for more than 75 years, making it one of the longest psychological studies in human history.

In Adaptation to Life (1977), Vaillant documented the lives of his subjects and analyzed the relationship between patterns of defense mechanism use and life outcomes: work, marriage, health, psychological maturity. His discoveries established a defense mechanism Maturity hierarchy It was to be positioned as

Vaillant's 75-year data reveals two propositions. Firstly,People who use more mature defenses have better objective life outcomes.. Second,Defense maturity can hardly be predicted by intelligence, education, or social class. ---Maturity is another level of development.

The implications in the context of overconfidence are twofold. One isDenial, projection, rationalization, intellectualization, and suppression -- the five defenses that support overconfidence listed in Section 5 all belong to the neurotic or immature class.. Therefore, the way to reduce overconfidence is to replace it with humor, restraint (conscious deferral), and anticipation. The other isMaturity develops with time and practice. Vaillan's data showed that some people's defense maturity increases after middle age -- training to recognize overconfidence can literally Adult developmental issues is.

08Klein's projective identification - overconfidence is amplified in relationships

defense mechanism phenomenon within the individual Freud and A. Freud's discussion, which is treated asphenomena that occur in relationships British child psychoanalysts expanded the Melanie Klein is. She presented it in her 1946 paper "Notes on Some Schizoid Mechanisms". projective identification This concept is one of the central concepts of object relations theory, and is also used in modern group dynamics and organization theory.

"Projective identification is a process in which one not only projects parts of oneself that are not recognized onto another person, but also makes the other person embody those parts through unconscious pressure. Projection is not simply an internal operation of the mind, but has the function of changing the other person through a relationship." - Melanie Klein, ``Notes on the Disruptive Mechanism'' (1946) Purpose

Although it is a difficult concept, it is a powerful tool for understanding overconfidence within organizations. Let's expand on the specifics. Senior judge A is confident that ``this case is fine.'' In fact, there is a very slight anxiety within A. However, A is not aware of this anxiety, and during a conversation with junior judge B, he unknowingly expresses his anxiety to B (subtle messages such as ``Aren't you too anxious?''). B experiences the anxiety he receives as his own emotion and expresses his worry. A sees B's worry and becomes more and more certain of himself ("I'm calm, B worries too much").

This chain isStructures that amplify overconfidence in relationships is. A's confidence is supported by B's anxiety, and B's anxiety is supported by A's belief. Both parties complement each other's psychology, and what is an objectively wrong judgment is firmly maintained as a dynamic of the relationship.

Implications are critical to understanding organizational overconfidence.Individual overconfidence is structured as a relational dynamic within a group.. Seniors have confidence, juniors have concerns, and in the end, the senior's decision is accepted. If this division of roles becomes fixed, the entire group will continue to maintain overconfidence as an "invisible system." We return to this organizational dimension in Part 6, "Why We Can't Learn from Failure" and Part 7, "Between Overconfidence and Humility."

09At the pharmaceutical site -- the moment when the defense mechanism kicks in

Bringing abstract theory to the field. In my daily life as a materials examiner, I will identify four specific moments when the defense mechanism is activated. Please observe each of these in light of the five mechanisms listed in Section 5.

What these four scenes have in common is thatThe person is not aware that "I am currently using a defense mechanism." is. All are experienced as natural reactions. That's why when looking back later Outline of discomfort You will need to get into the habit of observing.

10How to observe defense mechanisms -- three questions

Since defense mechanisms are unconscious, they cannot be directly observed. But that trace can be observed. As part of our practice, we would like to propose three questions. This is not psychoanalytic self-inquiry, but an everyday etiquette that can be used in judgment situations.

The principle common to all three questions isRather than looking directly at the unconscious, observe the "outline of discomfort" left by the unconscious. That's what it means. Although complete introspection is impossible, we can observe traces of defenses: too quick explanations, too much certainty, too much abstraction, and inexplicable silences. The habit of capturing these traces loosens the roots of overconfidence.

Overconfidence is not a phenomenon that occurs consciously, but rather an unconscious function to protect the ego - this was the central proposition of this episode. The topography of the mind shown by Freud's local theory and structural theory, the defense mechanisms systematized by Anna Freud, the maturity of defenses demonstrated by Vaillant's 75-year data, and the relational dimension shown by Klein's projective identification - five perspectives have pointed to the same place using different words.Overconfidence is a "successful state" of the ego's defense mechanism.. That's why knowledge alone won't erase it.

The practical outcome of this article is not to directly attack overconfidence, but to identify the defense mechanisms that operate under it one by one. The three questions posed in Section 10 are the starting point. Next time (part 4), we will discuss defense mechanisms. projection Another structure of overconfidence that is closely related to ``self-serving attribution bias,'' or The psychology of blaming outsiders ── will be dealt with. We will analyze how the universal human tendency to attribute success to one's own abilities and failure to external factors supports overconfidence.