Between overconfidence and humility -- the question of moderation that separates confidence from overconfidence

In Part 6, we traced the structure of overconfidence, the signs to observe, and the mechanisms that impede learning. This time we get closer to the ethical core of this series. What is the opposite of overconfidence?. Intuitively, we tend to think of it as ``losing confidence'' or ``humility,'' but this is only half true. The central proposition of this series is that the opposite of overconfidence is lack of confidence not moderation (the mean) It means that it is in. Aristotle's triadic structure of virtues in his Nicomachean Ethics, Confucius's Moderation, David Bohm's (1917–1992) dialogic theory and "reservation," Edgar Schein's questions of humility, Don E. Davis's modern empirical research on intellectual humility, Nāgārjuna's c. 150–250) - Six traditions in different languages There is a real middle ground between confidence and overconfidence. It was pointing to the same place. In this article, we will develop a vocabulary for having that moderation as a daily practice rather than an idea.

01Why is the "question of moderation" necessary?

The first six parts of this series have dealt with overconfidence. reduce It was the direction. Observe, identify, and restart learning. But let's set up a thought experiment here.If overconfidence completely disappeared, what would remain?. What remains is someone who takes wide confidence intervals every time they make a decision, weakens their confidence, and delays making a decision -- the opposite of an effective judge.

The risk that corrections for overconfidence can lead to unconfidence is real. If you've been reading the series since the beginning, by this time your confidence in your past decisions may have been a little shaken. That's a healthy reaction. However, allowing that fluctuation to stagnate in judgment is just as harmful as overconfidence.A true judge is neither overconfident nor self-confident. keep standing in that narrow band. This is the central proposition of this issue.

"Virtue is the mean between excess and deficiency. Moderation is not just an average, but something that must be discovered each time, depending on the situation, object, and one's state. Therefore, the acquisition of virtue is not the acquisition of rules, but the training of judgment." - Aristotle, Nicomachean Ethics (4th century BC), Volume 2, Chapter 6 Purpose

Aristotle's words directly point to the ethical core of this series. Moderation is not given as a rule, but within the context. be discovered. Therefore, what this episode provides is not a fixed answer, butForm of question to find the band is. The first half (sections 2 to 6) traces the six traditions, and the second half (sections 7 to 10) turns to contemporary empirical research and the field.

02Aristotle's triadic structure -- virtue and moderation

The person who most systematically put into words the middle ground between overconfidence and humility was an ancient Greek philosopher. aristotle (384–322 BC). The Nicomachean Ethics (Ἠθικὰ Νικομάχεια), which he wrote in the 4th century BC, continues to be read today as the book that laid the foundations of Western ethics.

The key to Aristotle's theory of virtue isVirtue is the middle ground between two vices. This is a ternary structure. The virtue of bravery, for example, lies in the middle ground between recklessness (excess) and cowardice (deficiency). The virtue of generosity lies between extravagance (excess) and miserliness (deficit). Each virtue is the polar opposite of excess and deficiency. Between It is positioned in

The implications are deep.The purpose of reducing overconfidence is not to become insecure, but to develop moderate judgment.. Observing defense mechanisms, reading signs, and restarting learning, all of which have been covered in Parts 1 to 6 of this series, are not exercises for lack of self-confidence, but for moderate judgment. In Aristotle's words,Losing confidence itself due to fear of overconfidence is another failure of virtue.. This is where the perspective of this issue begins.

03Confucius' "moderation" -- the absoluteness of excess and deficiency

The Confucian classics are the most systematic language of the same triadic structure in the Eastern tradition. 『moderation』 is. This is traditionally the grandson of Confucius childish thoughts (around the 5th century BC), and later became one of the four books of Confucianism, along with the University, Analects, and Mencius.

``When joy, anger, sadness, and joy have not yet emanated, this is called ``Naka.'' When they are emanated and everyone reaches a certain point, this is called ``Wa''. (Joy, Anger, Sorrow, Raku, Unwritten, 謂乭中. All in the middle section, 謹乂和. Chuuyasha, Tenka no Daimotoya. Kazuyasha, Tenka no Tatsu Michiya)" -- "Modern Means" Chapter 1

The "middle" in "moderation" is not just "just in the middle." it is hit the knot --- In other words, it refers to the state of responding accurately to the moderation and reason of the situation. It is of the same nature that Aristotle's moderation is found in situations. Both refer to the same place in different languages.

In Chapter 2 of ``The Mean'', there is a verse that directly addresses the theme of this episode.

“The moderation of a gentleman, and the moderation of a dwarf, and the moderation of a dwarf; there is no place to be afraid of being a dwarf.

"Jini Ataru" --- Standing in the correct position depending on the situation. This is not the observance of fixed rules, but the state of judgment itself. The manners of "reading signs," "restarting learning," and "observing defense mechanisms" that have been covered throughout this series are all At some point This is a warm-up exercise for. Moderation is not a static state, but a dynamic equilibrium that is maintained in an ongoing process of judgment.

04Bohm dialog and "suspension"

In the 20th century, the American physicist most acutely put into words the middle ground between overconfidence and lack of confidence as a practice in dialogue. david bohm is. His final book On Dialogue (published posthumously in 1996) became a widely read classic in the fields of organizational development, education, and psychotherapy.

The central concept of Bohm's dialogue theory is suspension is. This does not mean abandoning your judgment or beliefs. I don't throw it away, I don't force it on me. make a decision Once suspended in the air, place it in a position where it can be observed from there.. This is a concept that verbalizes the band between overconfidence and lack of confidence in the context of dialogue.

"Suspension is not the abandonment of one's opinions or assumptions. It is the act of retaining one's opinions and suspending them in the air so that one can observe them for oneself. This is not repression, abandonment, or fixation; it is a fourth attitude." - From David Bohm's On Dialogue (1996)

What Bohm calls the "fourth attitude" is important. In general, there are three possible attitudes toward one's judgments. suppress (silence),abandon (backs down),固執する (Push through). For all this, Bohm保留する We established a fourth path. This fourth path is the dialogical manifestation of moderation that this episode is trying to depict.

The practice of deferral is a critical tool when considering materials review meeting culture. Have judgment, but don't stick to it. Express your opinion, but don't impose it. Listen to counterarguments, but don't dismiss them easily. The practice of staying in this band is central to Bohm's dialogue theory.

05Humble Inquiry ── Schein's theory of dialogue

An organizational psychologist at MIT developed Bohm's dialog theory as a practice of organizational leadership and dialogue. Edgar Shine is. The 2013 Humble Inquiry was previously covered in Part 6 of this series, "Manager's Perspective," but in this context, it offers a perspective that maintains a middle ground between overconfidence and underconfidence as a manner of dialogue.

"Humble Inquiry is the manner of admitting that you don't have the answer and asking questions out of genuine interest in the other person. It's not a question to confirm your opinion, a question to guide the other person, or a question to pretend you don't know. It's a question to get the other person to tell you something you don't really know." - Purpose from Edgar Schein's Humble Inquiry (2013)

The core of Schein's "humble question" is that not insecure That's it. The person asking the question is not giving up their own expertise or experience. rather Honestly ask questions about things you don't know while maintaining your own expertise. This is the perfect middle ground between overconfidence (pretending to know everything) and insecurity (putting down expertise itself).

Schein categorized the questions into three categories.diagnostic question ─ A question to elicit specific information from the other person.confrontational question ── A question that challenges your judgment to the other person.humble question ── Questions that open your framework and learn from the knowledge of others. Although the three do not exclude each other, experts tend to unconsciously lean toward the first two. What is important in this context is thatHumble questions are difficult only for people with expertise. That's what it means.

06Intellectual Humility ── Modern Empirical Research

The most systematic empirical research in modern psychology on finding the middle ground between overconfidence and lack of confidence isIntellectual Humility (IH) This is a research area. American psychologist Porter Davis (Don E. Davis) In their empirical research since the 2010s, they defined the concept of intellectual humility as a measurable variable and demonstrated its effectiveness.

The definition of intellectual humility proposed by Davis et al. has four elements:Recognizing the limits of knowledge、Openness to the possibility of modifying one's beliefs、Genuine engagement with opposing views、Distance from claims of intellectual superiority. These four are neither the opposite of overconfidence nor lack of confidence. These are the four aspects of moderation.

"Intellectual humility does not mean continuing to doubt one's beliefs or denying one's expertise. It is a cognitive etiquette that accurately recognizes the boundaries of one's knowledge and beliefs and remains open to areas that extend beyond those boundaries." -- From Don E. Davis et al., Journal of Positive Psychology (2016)

The findings of Davis et al. and subsequent researchers in their empirical studies are consistent with the propositions of this series. intellectual humility isindependent variable As such, it has a positive impact on the quality of judgment, quality of interpersonal relationships, learning ability, and leadership effectiveness. On the other hand, self-doubt and self-deprecation have negative effects on the same outcome variables.Intellectual humility and self-doubt, although superficially similar, are psychologically and empirically distinct phenomena. --This is the central finding of Davis et al.'s study. This is also the empirical support for the moderation that this issue establishes.

07Buddhism's middle path and selflessness -- overcoming overconfidence and self-doubt at the same time

The most fundamental philosophy of moderation between overconfidence and lack of confidence is Indian Buddhist thought. Buddhism from the beginning middle path (madhyamā pratipad) has become one of our central tenets. It is said that what Shakyamuni Buddha preached in his first turning of the Dharma (his first sermon at the Deer Garden) was the middle path between the pursuit of lust and asceticism. Neither of these extremes, he preached, would lead to genuine liberation.

The person who logically developed this middle path in the most elaborate way was the Indian philosopher of the 2nd century AD. Ryuki (Nagarjuna) is. His major work, Madhyamaka-kārikā, laid the foundation for later Mahayana Buddhist thought, especially the Chukan school. When Ryuki's theory of the middle path is reread in the context of this episode, it can be understood as simultaneously overcoming overconfidence and lack of confidence.

"Everything is established through dependent origination. Nothing has a fixed nature (svabhāva). Therefore, thinking that ``I am definitely right'' (joken) and thinking that ``I know nothing'' (danken) are both illusions. The middle path is an open attitude that is not attached to either of the extremes.'' - Ryuki, Churon (c. 2nd century), No. 24 Purpose rather than chapter

If we reread Tatsuki's words based on the theme of this episode, they would look like this.Thinking ``I'm definitely right'' and thinking ``I'm completely wrong'' are both attachments to a fixed self-image.. The middle path is not about standing in the empty zone between the two extremes; Between It is about continuing to actively move. This is what Buddhism says no self (anātman) It is also a practical manifestation of the idea that there is no such thing as a fixed self.

The implications are deep. When it comes to judgments in materials screening, the feeling that ``my judgment is definitely correct'' and the feeling that ``my judgment cannot be trusted'' are both forms of ego attachment. Moderation is the third place that is neither of the two. Having a judgment but not fixing that judgment ── It is an etiquette that actively maintains this. This refers to the same place as Bohm's reservation, Schein's humble question, and Davis et al.'s intellectual humility.

08Authentic confidence coexists with self-monitoring against overconfidence

In sections 2 through 7, we traced the middle ground that the six traditions pointed to. Let's take a moment to look back at the overall structure of this series.The previous series “How to Gain Confidence” and this series “Recognizing Your Overconfidence” are not opposing books, but rather companion books.. The manner of constructing confidence three-dimensionally and the manner of recognizing overconfidence work as two wheels.

In Part 8 of the previous series, we covered self-efficacy by Albert Bandura (1925–2021). His empirical research showed that people with higher self-efficacy have higher persistence on tasks, better problem-solving quality, and better psychological health. This may seem to contradict the thesis of this series.Are having confidence and reducing overconfidence compatible?。

"Genuine self-efficacy is not overconfidence. It is a state of accurately distinguishing between what one can and cannot do. People with high self-efficacy accurately recognize their own limits and are therefore able to act confidently within those limits. Awareness of boundaries and confidence within boundaries go hand in hand." - From Albert Bandura, Self-Efficacy: The Exercise of Control (1997)

Bandura's words refer to the same place as the central proposition of this episode.Genuine confidence is having an accurate confidence interval for your judgments, and acting confidently within that confidence interval.. Those who have honed their physical techniques, cognitive leverage, and negotiation etiquette in the previous series will be able to sustain the self-monitoring of overconfidence in this series without losing confidence. Both series are paired manners that support both sides of Aristotle's moderation.

09In the pharmaceutical field ─ 4 situations where moderation is tested

Bringing abstract theory to the field. Here are four situations in the daily life of a materials examiner where the middle ground between overconfidence and lack of confidence is most clearly tested. Experiment with Bohm's "hold" etiquette in each one.

The structure common to the four scenes isKeep your judgment in a position where you can observe it That's it. Bohm's reservations, Schein's humble questions, Davis et al.'s intellectual humility, Ryuki's middle-of-the-road approach -- all converge here. Moderation is not a static average, but a dynamic equilibrium. The next section is about putting it into practice.

104 ways to maintain moderation

Moderate judgment cannot be given as a rule; it must be cultivated as a habit. As the final practice of this article, we will propose four manners. These practices are paired with the observation diary in Part 5 and the etiquette for restarting learning in Part 6.

The common principles of the four manners are:Moderation is not a destination, but a dynamic equilibrium that continues to be maintained. That's what it means. Authentic confidence coexists with self-monitoring for overconfidence. Genuine humility is not self-doubt. The practice of staying within the narrow band between extremes is the ethical core of this series.

The opposite of overconfidence is not lack of confidence. That is the golden mean -- that is the proposition that we have followed in this article. Aristotle's triadic structure, Confucius's 'moderation', Bohm's reservations, Schein's humble questions, Davis et al.'s empirical study of intellectual humility, Longshu's middle path - six traditions have pointed to the same place using different words.A true judge is neither overconfident nor self-confident. keep standing in that narrow band. This is not something to have as a rule, but something to develop as a habit.

The remaining three parts are the most practical part of the series. In the next installment (Part 8), we will discuss specific techniques for reducing overconfidence: calibration training and pre-mortem. Lichtenstein et al.'s lineage of calibration research, Gary Klein's Pre-mortem technique, Phil Tetlock's method of super-forecasters -- this is the episode with the most "toolbox" character in this series.