AI & Economy News — 2026-09-29 (Tue) Evening News

Overview

The AI inflation controversy came to light when Fed Director Cook said, ``AI capital investment will push up inflation first, and it is still a long way from pushing down productivity.'' (Action Forex, briefs.co, finance.biggo.com). At the same time, there is a sharp increase in demand for electricity in data centers, a projected $1.2 trillion in capital investment, and concerns about an "AI bubble" (TradingView, KuCoin).

Macroeconomic/growth trends

Fed Director Lisa Cook pointed out that AI infrastructure spending is driving up prices to begin with, and that only a fraction of the $2 trillion in investments has yet been disbursed (finance.biggo.com). He said the labor market could withstand interest rate hikes, and that inflationary pressures from AI would spread in the future (Action Forex). In Japan, private forecasts in the Bank of Japan's September Tankan suggest that business confidence in large manufacturing companies will improve due to demand for AI (Nihon Keizai Shimbun). Some point out that the competition for AI supremacy between the US and China is having an impact on the economy.

Productivity trends

McKinsey estimates that AI could shift 11 million workers into new jobs by 2035 (Business Standard). In Japan, there is a report that even in a team with 100% AI agent usage, the productivity improvement was only 1.1 times, and the existence of a bottleneck has been pointed out (CodeZine). PwC warns that while companies risk losing AI-savvy employees, the vast majority of workers are being left behind (PA Media). It has also been pointed out that introducing AI without work redesign will accelerate burnout (HRTech Series).

Trends in employment and labor market

AI is taking over the hiring process, raising the question: "What happens when humans disappear?" (Fast Company Middle East). Pearson has acquired Workera, an enterprise AI skills assessment company (Morningstar). Stand8 announces a recruitment platform that prevents candidate fraud using AI (HRTech Series). Forrester points out that challenges in the medical field cannot be solved by AI alone, but require business redesign.

Trends in energy/power demand

Data Center Knowledge discussed rebuilding the power grid for the AI economy as a “200GW moment” (Data Center Knowledge). ABB launches DC power infrastructure product range for AI data centers (ABB). Samsung is reported to be investing $1 billion in AI data centers under a former AWS executive (Energy Connects). Bain raises the question of the AI data center construction boom: "If you build it, they will come." (Bain) It has also been reported that stocks related to AI data centers are attracting attention due to the actual demand for fiber and power infrastructure development (Yahoo Finance).

Remarks by central banks, international organizations, and VIPs

- Fed Director Lisa Cook: AI capital spending will continue to push inflation higher for the time being, and the labor market will be able to withstand further monetary tightening. Only a small portion of the $2 trillion in investments has been spent (Action Forex, briefs.co, finance.biggo.com). - IMF: Warns that AI could become a systemic cyber risk (Finimize). - Regarding the tracked targets Christine Lagarde, Kazuo Ueda, Andrew Bailey, Kristalina Georgieva, Mathias Cormann, Ajay Banga, Daron Acemoglu, and Erik Brynjolfsson, there is no direct statement or mention in the news collected this time.

Trends in corporate capital investment

Goldman Sachs predicts that AI infrastructure capital spending will reach $1.2 trillion by 2027, with energy becoming a major bottleneck (TradingView). moneyshow argued that ``hyperscalers' AI capital investment costs will eventually face recovery issues'' (moneyshow.com). NDTV reported a commentary saying, ``The AI boom is falling into a 'debt trap' with a 5% danger line.'' Michael Burry is reported to be taking an AI bubble concern position with puts on Micron, Palantir, and SOXX (KuCoin). Some point out that TSMC has become the de facto setter of AI chip prices (Startup Fortune). Morgan Stanley reportedly recommended a group of AI-related "picks and shovels" stocks (Business Insider Japan, does not refer to investment advice).

Trade and industrial policy

It was reported that while the US and China are cooperating on AI governance, competition is also intensifying (Anadolu Ajansı). China and the US have reportedly agreed on AI dialogue and tariff reductions (chinaeconomicreview.com). South Korea's exports are expected to increase for the 16th consecutive month due to demand for AI chips (Reuters). The Carnegie Endowment has argued for a "middle-sized country path that is neither competitive nor dependent" in building AI capacity. Experts have expressed concerns about Nvidia's sales of AI chips to China and its influence on the Trump administration (Ars Technica).

Integrated analysis: What is happening now

Fed Director Cook's remarks indicate that AI capital investment is at a stage where it is appearing in the real economy as "inflation due to investment demand and electricity demand" rather than "disinflation due to productivity improvements." This is consistent with headlines related to power infrastructure (200GW power grid, ABB's DC products, Samsung's $1 billion investment), and confirms that real demand for AI capital investment is emerging as capital concentrates in the power sector. On the other hand, a report that Japan's productivity is 1.1 times even with 100% AI agent utilization, McKinsey's prediction of job transition, and PwC's warning of an "AI gap" suggest that productivity and employment results are not keeping up with the expansion in investment scale. At the same time, Goldman Sachs' $1.2 trillion capital investment forecast and NDTV's Michael Burry's "AI bubble" argument coexist, and the market seems to be talking about two evaluation axes at the same time: "power and infrastructure investment based on actual demand" and "overinvestment/debt risk." Furthermore, while the US and China are proceeding with dialogue on AI governance and tariffs, tensions remain over Nvidia's exports to China and the chip supply chain (TSMC), suggesting a coexistence of cooperation and competition.

Future points of interest

- It will be interesting to see how the AI inflation theory of Fed directors will be reflected in the monetary policy stance (decisions to raise or lower interest rates). - It seems necessary to assess how the increase in electricity demand due to AI capital investment will affect transmission network investment and electricity prices. - We should pay close attention to how the discrepancy in evaluations between concerns about a "bubble" in AI-related stocks (such as Michael Burry's position) and predictions of increased capital investment (Goldman Sachs) will converge in the future.