Recognising One's Own Overconfidence — Beyond Metacognition and Defence Mechanisms
Why is one's own overconfidence invisible to oneself? Moore & Healy's three types (overestimation, overprecision, overplacement), the Dunning-Kruger effect, Freud's defence mechanisms, Tetlock's expert research, and the wisdom of self-knowledge from Laozi and Confucius — this ten-volume series assembles, rather than the practice of erasing overconfidence, the practice of carrying it honestly. The counterpart to "Cultivating Confidence."
01
The Greatest Trap of Overconfidence — Moments of Losing the Self
Moore & Healy's three types, Kahneman's warning, Tetlock's long-term study, the self-knowledge of Laozi and Confucius, Darwin's observation, the history of pharmaceutical disasters — seven perspectives that open the series by depicting why overconfidence is the greatest trap.
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02
The Blind Spot of Metacognition — The Dunning-Kruger Effect and the Structure of Not Knowing What One Does Not Know
Kruger & Dunning's (1999) classical experiment, Flavell's metacognition theory, the contemporary statistical critique by Nuhfer and Gignac, Zhuangzi's well-frog, Russell's warning, and the neuroscience of anosognosia — eight perspectives that draw out the technique of observing one's own blind spot.
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03
Freud's Self-Regulation and Defence Mechanisms — The Unconscious Structure That Supports Overconfidence
Freud's The Ego and the Id, Anna Freud's typology of defence, rationalisation, projection, denial, reaction formation — decomposing the unconscious dynamics that support overconfidence.
Coming soon
04
The Psychology of "Blaming the Outside" — Self-Serving Attribution Bias and Overconfidence
Heider's attribution theory, Miller & Ross's self-serving bias, the fundamental attribution error, the illusion of control — the structure of attributing failure outward and success to oneself.
Coming soon
05
Reading the Signs of Overconfidence — Observing Overconfidence in Oneself and Others
Verbal and non-verbal signals of overconfidence, the trap of expressions of certainty, frequency of assertion, resistance to correction — concrete indicators that make overconfidence observable.
Coming soon
06
Why One Cannot Learn from Failure — The Structure by Which Overconfidence Obstructs Learning
Argyris on defensive reasoning, Edmondson on psychological safety, Janis on groupthink, the rationalisation after Black Swans — the conditions for turning failure into learning.
Coming soon
07
Between Overconfidence and Humility — The Question of the Mean That Separates Confidence from Overconfidence
Aristotle's mean, Tangney's research on humility, Intellectual Humility — the technique of not losing confidence while not carrying overconfidence.
Coming soon
08
The Practice of Reducing Overconfidence — Calibration and Pre-mortem
Lichtenstein-Fischhoff's calibration training, Klein's Pre-mortem method, conscious recognition of confidence interval, Devil's Advocate — empirically proven practices that actually reduce overconfidence.
Coming soon
09
Between Ideal Self and Real Self — The Overconfidence Born from Jungian Discrepancy of Self-Image
Jung's distinction of Self (Selbst) and ego (Ich), Higgins's self-discrepancy theory, the trap of idealised self-image, inflation of persona — the dynamics by which the discrepancy of self-image produces overconfidence.
Coming soon
10
Living While Carrying Overconfidence — Not Erasure but the Practice of Coexistence and Monitoring
The integration of the whole ten-volume series. Overconfidence is a structural feature of human cognition that does not entirely disappear. Even so — the daily practice of monitoring and coexistence for judging honestly.
Coming soon
A ten-volume series. Vol. 3 onward will be published in order. Paired with the previous series "Cultivating Confidence."
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