AI and the World's Hard Problems · Astronomy & space · arXiv · 2026-10-26
ARENA: Active Region attENtion Aggregation for interpretable solar flare prediction
ARENA is a neural network that predicts solar flares from a variable number of active-region cutouts, trained with only flare/no-flare labels using multiple-instance learning. Its attention mechanism localizes the active region driving each prediction without flare-origin annotations. It achieves a Heidke skill score of 0.45, comparable to other flare prediction approaches.