AI & Economy News — 2026-09-26 (Sat)

Daily ReportMorning 03:10 + Evening 18:10 (JST) auto-aggregated

Source links point to the original outlet. The AI Integrated Analysis is auto-generated from the headlines below only and is not intended to add facts beyond them. Not investment advice.

Editions of the day： Morning News (Morning 03:10) ／ Evening News (Evening 18:10)

🌅 Morning Report06:10 JST

Source: Google News RSS / central bank and IMF releases / YouTube · Past 12 hours · 41 articles

While Goldman Sachs predicts that capital investment for hyperscalers will rise to $1.2 trillion, senior Federal Reserve officials and BOE Governor Bailey have divided their opinions on the impact on

Overview

While Goldman Sachs predicts that capital investment for hyperscalers will rise to $1.2 trillion, senior Federal Reserve officials and BOE Governor Bailey have divided their opinions on the impact on the economy and prices (Bloomberg, Reuters, etc.). Data centers and power grids are becoming increasingly integrated due to the rapidly increasing demand for electricity, and financial authorities in Japan and other countries are increasing their scrutiny of AI-related loans (Japan Times). On the employment front, data shows that the impact on new graduates has not been as obvious as feared (Ars Technica).

Macroeconomic/growth trends

Bill Ackman points out that the AI race may have disrupted the Fed's framework for determining inflation (Business Insider). Cathie Wood says AI could push global GDP growth above 7%, calling this a "conservative" view (Stocktwits). Tom Barkin (former McKinsey CFO) of the KC Fed Regional Federal Reserve Bank expressed the view that "AI disruption" has not yet arrived (Fortune). There are also reports that Micron's performance and AI-related investments are boosting US GDP growth (Fox News). US core capital goods orders rose 1.6% in August, beating expectations, supported by AI investment, it was reported (Reuters).

Productivity trends

Yale Insights' analysis suggests that AI will either reduce jobs or create new ones, "probably both." In the field of government, it has been pointed out that AI can help provide services to residents who were previously unable to reach them (PA TIMES Online). Meanwhile, The American Prospect discussed the arrival of an AI meltdown, and Fortune argued that entry-level jobs for new graduates are losing substantial "subsidy to apprenticeships" due to the introduction of AI. In Mexico, Dell said that the use of AI is moving from the trial implementation stage to the full-scale operation stage (Mexico Business News).

Trends in employment and labor market

It has been pointed out that new graduates and students should reconsider their resumes and job hunting methods in light of AI (CNBC). In the EU, employers' obligations under the GDPR and the EU AI Act are a hot topic of discussion regarding the use of AI recruitment tools (Ogletree). In the administrative field, a framework for skills-based retraining in the AI era is being discussed (PA TIMES Online). Ars Technica reported that there were concerns that the employment situation for new graduates would be hit hard, but current unemployment data does not support that.

Trends in energy/power demand

State-level political debate continues in Pennsylvania and Tennessee over data center power needs (The Allegheny Front, WTVC). There are reports that Google's data centers are starting to function as power grid partners (Data Center Knowledge). Atlas Energy shares rise after contract to supply power to AI data centers (Yahoo Finance). There is also analysis that China's superiority in clean electricity has implications for AI competition (Latitude Media).

Remarks by central banks, international organizations, and VIPs

- Andrew Bailey (Governor of Bank of England): Reportedly sees AI as a "positive supply shock" (Investing.com). - Jeffrey Schmid (Kansas City Fed President): Called for systemic risk assessments of AI systems, saying we need to understand whether the AI "ecosystem" has become too large to fail (Reuters, Channel NewsAsia). - Daron Acemoglu (MIT Economist/Nobel Prize Winner): pointed out to Armenia that computing power alone is not enough and that a comprehensive AI strategy is needed (ARKA-Telecom). - Japan's financial regulator: It was reported that it is strengthening its supervision of loans for AI data centers (Japan Times). - The OECD has published a paper on governance by "agent-based AI", a situation in which machines act on behalf of governments (oecd.ai). *There are no headlines for the 12 hours regarding Lagarde, Ueda, Georgieva, Cormann, Banga, and Brynjolfsson.

Trends in corporate capital investment

Goldman Sachs predicts that hyperscaler AI capital spending will increase by 50% to reach $1.2 trillion, and also predicted the same level in 2027 (Bloomberg, PYMNTS). The company also showed an analysis that six major companies will need to generate $1.42 trillion between 2028 and 2030 to recover capital investment for AI computing (BigGo Finance). There was a report asking whether Amazon's AI capital investment is outpacing its return on investment (Yahoo Finance), while 247wallst argued, ``The reason Amazon continues to make investments like this is because it believes that AI capital investment will not fail.'' PIMCO's Lotfi Karoui said the AI capex cycle is pushing real yields higher and the market is pricing in an additional $500 billion in credit supply (Stocktwits).

Trade and industrial policy

A tug-of-war over U.S. AI regulation is reportedly causing political division in Washington (Time). U.S. Trade Representative Greer said there will be no AI semiconductor negotiations with China this time (AzerNews). At Bryant University's 40th Global Trade Summit, there was discussion on how tariffs, AI, and supply chains are reshaping commerce (The Business Journals). Kevin Rudd discussed China, AI, and US-China relations (Barron's). During the Trump-Xi meeting, experts warned that China is trying to surpass the United States using open source AI and large-scale subsidies (Heartlander News).

Integrated analysis: What is happening now

While the capital investment side (Goldman's $1.2 trillion forecast) and electric power infrastructure (Google and Atlas Energy's power grid collaboration) are expanding at the same time, on the central bank side, Schmid's concerns that ``the AI ecosystem is too big to fail'' and Bailey's assessment of a ``supply shock'' suggest that financial authorities are beginning to seriously evaluate the macro implications of the investment boom. In terms of employment, there is a discrepancy between pessimistic predictions (hitting new graduates) and actual data (Ars Technica), and this, combined with the productivity debate (Yale Insights, American Prospect), may suggest that the impact of AI on the real economy has not yet been quantitatively determined. In terms of trade and industrial policy, the competition for technological supremacy between the US and China (Greer's postponement of semiconductor negotiations, China's open source/subsidy strategy) is intensifying in tandem with the competition for capital investment, and this can be interpreted as a situation in which the sustainability of the AI boom is beginning to be questioned from three directions: electricity, capital, and policy.

Future points of interest

- How will the consistency between Goldman Sachs' $1.2 trillion hyperscalar capital investment and the $1.42 trillion investment return requirement for the six major companies between 2028 and 2030 be evaluated? - How will the assessment of the "systemic risk of the AI ecosystem" proposed by Mr. Schmid affect other central banks and international organizations (IMF, OECD, etc.)? - How will U.S.-China AI semiconductor and technology policies (the postponement of Greer negotiations, China's open source strategy) affect future export control and tariff discussions?

🌐 Macro Economy / Growth4

Billionaire investor Bill Ackman says the AI race may have broken the Fed's inflation playbook — Business Insider09/25 16:06 UTC
Fed’s Tom Barkin, a former McKinsey CFO, says the ‘AI Apocalypse’ hasn’t arrived — Fortune09/25 13:05 UTC
Survey: How US restaurants are handling inflation, labor, AI, and revenue growth — 95.5 WSB09/25 13:00 UTC
Micron stock and AI build-out drive massive US GDP growth — Fox News09/25 11:36 UTC

📈 Productivity5

Will AI Eliminate Jobs or Create New Ones? Probably Both. — Yale Insights09/25 17:47 UTC
Beyond Job Cuts: AI Can Help Government Reach the People It Misses — PA TIMES Online09/25 17:47 UTC
The Coming AI Meltdown — The American Prospect09/25 19:00 UTC
Entry-level jobs were actually secret apprenticeships all along, and AI just cut the subsidy — Fortune09/25 14:05 UTC
Dell: Mexico's AI Race Moves From Pilots to Production — Mexico Business News09/25 19:28 UTC

👷 Jobs / Labor Market5

How recent grads and college students should be thinking about AI, the CV, and the job market — cnbc.com09/25 19:10 UTC
From AI Pilots to Proof: Explore What Comes Next for Your Workforce at Insights in Action — adp.com09/25 18:18 UTC
Governing AI in the Public Workforce: A Skills-Based Framework for Equitable Reskilling — PA TIMES Online09/25 17:58 UTC
Deployment of AI Recruitment Tools in the EU: Employer Obligations Under GDPR and EU AI Act — Ogletree09/25 19:15 UTC
AI was supposed to hit new grads hard. So far, unemployment data says otherwise. — Ars Technica09/25 19:11 UTC

⚡ Energy / Power Demand5

Pennsylvania leaders weigh in on AI and data centers at Pittsburgh conference — The Allegheny Front09/25 20:46 UTC
Tennessee Governor candidates weigh in on data centers, AI and energy demands — WTVC09/25 19:18 UTC
Google’s AI Data Centers Become Grid Partners — datacenterknowledge.com09/25 17:31 UTC
Atlas Energy stock surges on AI data center power deals — Yahoo Finance09/25 13:15 UTC
What China’s clean power advantage means for the AI race — Latitude Media09/25 18:28 UTC

🚢 Trade / Industrial Policy4

The Fight to Rein In AI Is Dividing Washington — Time Magazine09/25 13:41 UTC
Greer: No AI chip talks with China this time — AzerNews09/25 19:30 UTC
Bryant University wraps 40th Global Trade Summit as tariffs, AI and supply chains reshape commerce — The Business Journals09/25 18:38 UTC
Kevin Rudd on China, AI and U.S. Relations — barrons.com09/25 16:56 UTC

🏛️ Central Banks / International Institutions4

Governing with agentic AI: when machines act on government’s behalf — oecd.ai09/25 17:19 UTC
Fed's Schmid: Need to understand if AI "ecosystem" getting too big to fail — Reuters09/25 15:46 UTC
Kansas City Fed President Schmid Calls for Assessing AI Systemic Risks — Channel NewsAsia — UA.NEWS09/25 15:01 UTC
Wall Street ends higher as investors buy AI stocks; Microsoft rallies — Reuters09/25 20:19 UTC

🏗️ Corporate Capex5

Goldman Sees Hyperscaler AI Capex Rising 50% to $1.2 Trillion — Bloomberg.com09/25 12:10 UTC
Amazon Stock: Is AI Capex Outrunning the Payback? — Yahoo Finance09/25 15:40 UTC
Amazon Wouldn’t Be Doing What It’s Doing if AI Capex Was Going to Fail — 247wallst.com09/25 16:30 UTC
AI Capex Cycle Is Pushing Real Yields Higher, Says PIMCO’s Lotfi Karoui — Consensus Sees Another $500B Of Credit Supply — Stocktwits09/25 13:51 UTC
Goldman Sachs Projects Big Tech AI Infrastructure Spending to Hit $1.2 Trillion in 2027 — PYMNTS.com09/25 15:37 UTC

🗾 Japan's Economy and AI5

U.S. core capital goods orders rose 1.6% in August, exceeding expectations, supported by AI investment — Reuters09/25 15:16 UTC
Goldman Sachs: Recovery hurdles for AI computing capital investment revealed; six major companies need to generate $1.42 trillion between 2028 and 2030 — BigGo ファイナンス09/25 12:05 UTC
CTS utilizes AI to improve operational efficiency in the construction industry with new service — 信濃毎日新聞デジタル09/25 10:55 UTC
Is manufacturing business confidence improving? = Support for AI and semiconductor demand - Tankan private forecasts — 時事通信ニュース09/25 09:54 UTC
Utilizing AI and artificial intelligence to solve corporate issues: ``Don't think about it too hard, think about it as something fun and convenient'' Seminar held in Oita — FNNプライムオンライン09/25 10:00 UTC

👤 Key Voices2

Bank of England’s Bailey sees AI as positive supply shock By Investing.com — Investing.com Nigeria09/25 11:13 UTCAndrew Bailey / Bank of England Governor
Acemoglu: Armenia’s computing power alone is not enough—a comprehensive AI strategy is needed — ARKA-Telecom09/25 09:32 UTCDaron Acemoglu / MIT economist / Nobel laureate

▶️ AI Videos / Commentary2

Can the US Economy Keep Growing If AI Spending Slows? | Presented by CME Group

Bloomberg Television · 09/25 19:22 UTC

The impact of AI on young workers and entry-level jobs

CNBC Television · 09/25 20:20 UTC

👥 Watchlist

Christine Lagarde ── ECB President

Kazuo Ueda ── 日本銀行総裁

Andrew Bailey ── Bank of England Governor

Kristalina Georgieva ── IMF Managing Director

Mathias Cormann ── OECD Secretary-General

Ajay Banga ── World Bank President

Daron Acemoglu ── MIT economist / Nobel laureate

Erik Brynjolfsson ── Stanford Digital Economy Lab

🌆 Evening Report18:10 JST

Source: Google News RSS / central bank and IMF releases / YouTube · Past 12 hours · 37 articles

Overview

While the market is becoming more cautious due to the expansion of AI-related capital investment and the sharp increase in electricity demand for data centers, the IMF has estimated the productivity improvement effect (raising labor productivity by up to 3.8%) (News On AIR). Discussions regarding changes in the employment structure and taxation of AI companies are in full swing at central banks and Congress.

Macroeconomic/growth trends

It has been pointed out that the AI infrastructure investment boom is boosting U.S. orders for capital goods (Wolf Street). Emerging market debt markets are also being discussed as potentially disrupted by AI (Seeking Alpha), and prominent investors are warning of the risks underlying the AI boom (thestreet.com). Some analysis suggests that AI will become an issue in the midterm elections (Newswise).

Productivity trends

An IMF study estimates that AI could boost labor productivity by up to 3.8% across industries (News On AIR, ET CIO). On the other hand, the disconnection of career ladders (promotional paths) has been pointed out as a new issue (The Edge Malaysia). At the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA 81), the impact of new international rules on AI on employment, data, and the digital economy was discussed (People Daily).

Trends in employment and labor market

While Georgia's governor says AI is creating jobs (WABE), there are also reports that entry-level jobs are shrinking and career paths are changing (Central Penn Business Journal). In the US Congress, a bill has been proposed (Quiver Quantitative) that would tax AI companies and use the funds to support employment measures. About 90,000 call center jobs in Arizona are threatened by AI and foreign competition, a union warns (AZ Family). The Asahi Shimbun reported on the reality of how AI is taking away jobs, but also creating new jobs, through India's "invisible workers" (Asahi Shimbun).

Trends in energy/power demand

In response to the rapid increase in demand for electricity from AI data centers, the state of its regulation is being discussed (The Regulatory Review). There are reports that cracks are appearing in Oracle's plans to build a large data center in New Mexico (WSJ). Massachusetts is also examining the environmental impact of AI infrastructure (The Boston Globe). Crusoe scraps plans for $1.25B data center with Boom turbines (TechCrunch) Data center company Nscale raises $3.36B ahead of IPO (SiliconANGLE).

Remarks by central banks, international organizations, and VIPs

- Bank of England: It was reported that the bank is working on using AI to read interest rate decisions ahead of the market and predict market reactions (This is Money). Governor Andrew Bailey himself was not mentioned in the statement. - ECB: Governing Council member Panetta reportedly called for the need to track income distribution using AI (UA.NEWS via Cyprus Mail). President Christine Lagarde's own remarks are not included in this headline. - World Bank: Reported to have held talks on AI with Pakistan's Punjab province (The Express Tribune). It is not specified as a personal statement by President Ajay Banga. - GZERO Media discusses how AI can help counter cyber attacks. - Individual statements from the IMF, OECD, Kristalina Georgieva, Mathias Cormann, Kazuo Ueda, Daron Acemoglu and Erik Brynjolfssky are not found in today's headlines.

Trends in corporate capital investment

Microsoft is focused on balancing Azure growth and capital investment risk (Yahoo Finance). AI capital investment, government bond yields, and geopolitical risks are discussed as warning signals to the market (Seeking Alpha). There is an estimate that hyperscaler AI capital investment may reach $1.2T in 2027 (Briefs Finance). According to estimates by Goldman Sachs, the break-even line for hyperscalar AI investments will be approximately 47 trillion yen in annual revenue (zaikei.co.jp). Some analysis suggests that Apple's advantage over Nvidia lasted only two months (shattered.io). Micron stock has risen more than 260% since the beginning of the year, and its sustainability will be tested when the company's financial results are released on September 30th (news.yahoo.co.jp).

Trade and industrial policy

Tariffs and AI were among the points of interest at the Trump-Xi Jinping summit (Nikkei Asia). It has been reported that Chinese AI models are gaining worldwide popularity, and Washington is on high alert (CNBC, The Tech Buzz). The US has lifted export restrictions on Claude, Fable, and Mythos models, and Anthropic is said to have passed one hurdle toward a major IPO (Stocktwits).

Integrated analysis: What is happening now

The story of the ``benefits of AI,'' as estimated by the IMF as a productivity improvement effect (up to 3.8%), and the story of the ``pains of AI'', such as the polarization of employment (risk of 90,000 call center jobs and reduction in entry-level jobs), are progressing simultaneously. This structure is supported by the huge capital investments made by hyperscalers (estimated at $1.2T in 2027), but skepticism about their profitability line (annual revenue of about 47 trillion yen, estimated by Goldman) is growing, and ``investment flaws'' such as cracks in Oracle's data center plan and the withdrawal of Crusoe are beginning to surface individually. The debate over regulations to address the rapidly increasing demand for electricity shows that we have entered a stage where the burden that this expansion of investment has on the real economy (power grid and local environment) cannot be ignored. On the central bank side, there are parallel moves to incorporate AI from an ``object of analysis'' into a ``tool for policy implementation,'' with the ECB's Panetta calling for AI to track income distribution, and the Bank of England using AI to determine interest rates. In the United States and China, there have been simultaneous reports of the relaxation of AI export regulations (Anthropic) and warnings about Chinese AI models (CNBC), and it can be seen that industrial policy is wavering between protection and openness.

Future points of interest

- Micron's September 30th financial results are expected to be a test of the sustainability of the capital investment boom based on AI demand. - The focus may be on how actual profits will change compared to Goldman's estimated "breakeven line" (annual revenue of about 47 trillion yen), and whether the rifts in individual projects such as Oracle will widen. - The U.S. Congress' bill to tax AI companies and labor union movements surrounding job losses, such as the Call Sen Rules, could accelerate policy debates over AI and employment.

🌐 Macro Economy / Growth5