AI & Economy News — 2026-09-26 (Sat) Morning News

Overview

While Goldman Sachs predicts that capital investment for hyperscalers will rise to $1.2 trillion, senior Federal Reserve officials and BOE Governor Bailey have divided their opinions on the impact on the economy and prices (Bloomberg, Reuters, etc.). Data centers and power grids are becoming increasingly integrated due to the rapidly increasing demand for electricity, and financial authorities in Japan and other countries are increasing their scrutiny of AI-related loans (Japan Times). On the employment front, data shows that the impact on new graduates has not been as obvious as feared (Ars Technica).

Macroeconomic/growth trends

Bill Ackman points out that the AI race may have disrupted the Fed's framework for determining inflation (Business Insider). Cathie Wood says AI could push global GDP growth above 7%, calling this a "conservative" view (Stocktwits). Tom Barkin (former McKinsey CFO) of the KC Fed Regional Federal Reserve Bank expressed the view that "AI disruption" has not yet arrived (Fortune). There are also reports that Micron's performance and AI-related investments are boosting US GDP growth (Fox News). US core capital goods orders rose 1.6% in August, beating expectations, supported by AI investment, it was reported (Reuters).

Productivity trends

Yale Insights' analysis suggests that AI will either reduce jobs or create new ones, "probably both." In the field of government, it has been pointed out that AI can help provide services to residents who were previously unable to reach them (PA TIMES Online). Meanwhile, The American Prospect discussed the arrival of an AI meltdown, and Fortune argued that entry-level jobs for new graduates are losing substantial "subsidy to apprenticeships" due to the introduction of AI. In Mexico, Dell said that the use of AI is moving from the trial implementation stage to the full-scale operation stage (Mexico Business News).

Trends in employment and labor market

It has been pointed out that new graduates and students should reconsider their resumes and job hunting methods in light of AI (CNBC). In the EU, employers' obligations under the GDPR and the EU AI Act are a hot topic of discussion regarding the use of AI recruitment tools (Ogletree). In the administrative field, a framework for skills-based retraining in the AI era is being discussed (PA TIMES Online). Ars Technica reported that there were concerns that the employment situation for new graduates would be hit hard, but current unemployment data does not support that.

Trends in energy/power demand

State-level political debate continues in Pennsylvania and Tennessee over data center power needs (The Allegheny Front, WTVC). There are reports that Google's data centers are starting to function as power grid partners (Data Center Knowledge). Atlas Energy shares rise after contract to supply power to AI data centers (Yahoo Finance). There is also analysis that China's superiority in clean electricity has implications for AI competition (Latitude Media).

Remarks by central banks, international organizations, and VIPs

- Andrew Bailey (Governor of Bank of England): Reportedly sees AI as a "positive supply shock" (Investing.com). - Jeffrey Schmid (Kansas City Fed President): Called for systemic risk assessments of AI systems, saying we need to understand whether the AI "ecosystem" has become too large to fail (Reuters, Channel NewsAsia). - Daron Acemoglu (MIT Economist/Nobel Prize Winner): pointed out to Armenia that computing power alone is not enough and that a comprehensive AI strategy is needed (ARKA-Telecom). - Japan's financial regulator: It was reported that it is strengthening its supervision of loans for AI data centers (Japan Times). - The OECD has published a paper on governance by "agent-based AI", a situation in which machines act on behalf of governments (oecd.ai). *There are no headlines for the 12 hours regarding Lagarde, Ueda, Georgieva, Cormann, Banga, and Brynjolfsson.

Trends in corporate capital investment

Goldman Sachs predicts that hyperscaler AI capital spending will increase by 50% to reach $1.2 trillion, and also predicted the same level in 2027 (Bloomberg, PYMNTS). The company also showed an analysis that six major companies will need to generate $1.42 trillion between 2028 and 2030 to recover capital investment for AI computing (BigGo Finance). There was a report asking whether Amazon's AI capital investment is outpacing its return on investment (Yahoo Finance), while 247wallst argued, ``The reason Amazon continues to make investments like this is because it believes that AI capital investment will not fail.'' PIMCO's Lotfi Karoui said the AI capex cycle is pushing real yields higher and the market is pricing in an additional $500 billion in credit supply (Stocktwits).

Trade and industrial policy

A tug-of-war over U.S. AI regulation is reportedly causing political division in Washington (Time). U.S. Trade Representative Greer said there will be no AI semiconductor negotiations with China this time (AzerNews). At Bryant University's 40th Global Trade Summit, there was discussion on how tariffs, AI, and supply chains are reshaping commerce (The Business Journals). Kevin Rudd discussed China, AI, and US-China relations (Barron's). During the Trump-Xi meeting, experts warned that China is trying to surpass the United States using open source AI and large-scale subsidies (Heartlander News).

Integrated analysis: What is happening now

While the capital investment side (Goldman's $1.2 trillion forecast) and electric power infrastructure (Google and Atlas Energy's power grid collaboration) are expanding at the same time, on the central bank side, Schmid's concerns that ``the AI ecosystem is too big to fail'' and Bailey's assessment of a ``supply shock'' suggest that financial authorities are beginning to seriously evaluate the macro implications of the investment boom. In terms of employment, there is a discrepancy between pessimistic predictions (hitting new graduates) and actual data (Ars Technica), and this, combined with the productivity debate (Yale Insights, American Prospect), may suggest that the impact of AI on the real economy has not yet been quantitatively determined. In terms of trade and industrial policy, the competition for technological supremacy between the US and China (Greer's postponement of semiconductor negotiations, China's open source/subsidy strategy) is intensifying in tandem with the competition for capital investment, and this can be interpreted as a situation in which the sustainability of the AI boom is beginning to be questioned from three directions: electricity, capital, and policy.

Future points of interest

- How will the consistency between Goldman Sachs' $1.2 trillion hyperscalar capital investment and the $1.42 trillion investment return requirement for the six major companies between 2028 and 2030 be evaluated? - How will the assessment of the "systemic risk of the AI ecosystem" proposed by Mr. Schmid affect other central banks and international organizations (IMF, OECD, etc.)? - How will U.S.-China AI semiconductor and technology policies (the postponement of Greer negotiations, China's open source strategy) affect future export control and tariff discussions?