AI Reports · GovAI (Oxford) · 2026-10-17 · Research paper
AI and Biosecurity Forecasting LLM-Enabled Biorisk and the Efficacy of Safeguards July 2025 Bridget Williams, Luca Righetti, Josh Rosenberg, Rebecca Ceppas de Castro, Otto Kuusela, Rhiannon Britt, Emi
The study surveyed 46 biology and biosecurity experts and 22 generalist forecasters on the risks of growing LLM capabilities. Experts' median baseline annual risk of a human-caused epidemic killing 100,000 people was 0.3%, rising to 1.5% under hypothetical capabilities such as matching a top virologist team on a troubleshooting test. A follow-up study found LLMs had already crossed that threshold, though the median respondent expected it only after 2030; with LLM safeguards and mandatory nucleic acid screening, the forecast fell back to about 0.4%.