AI Reports · GovAI (Oxford) · 2026-10-17 · Research paper
Economics of AI Scenarios for the Transition to AGI March 2024 Research Paper Anton Korinek, Donghyun Suh We analyze how output and wages behave under different scenarios for technological progress th
The paper analyzes how output and wages evolve under different scenarios of technological progress toward Artificial General Intelligence, defined as AI able to perform all tasks humans can. It models human work as tasks of varying complexity, with wages determined by a race between automation and capital accumulation. Depending on the distribution of task complexity, wages may rise indefinitely or collapse once full automation is reached.