AI Reports · GovAI (Oxford) · 2026-10-17 · Research paper
Economics Understanding AI’s Labor Market Impacts December 2025 Research Paper Sam Manning There is deep uncertainty about how significant AI’s workforce effects will be, how quickly they will emerge,
There is deep uncertainty about how large AI's workforce effects will be, how quickly they will emerge, and which groups they will affect most. Some economists expect only modest near-term employment effects, while several leading AI developers and other economists warn of large-scale labor market impacts within one to five years. The paper proposes options for the U.S. Department of Labor's forthcoming AI Workforce Research Hub to collect data and enable frequent analyses so policymakers can respond in time.