AI & Economy News — 2026-09-25 (Fri) Morning News

Overview

At the US-China summit, AI is on the agenda along with trade and tariffs, and rapprochement with China and competition for AI supremacy are progressing simultaneously (Fox Business, PBS, CNBC). On the other hand, Wells Fargo and UBS have sounded the alarm about the sustainability of AI capital investment, making it clear that electricity demand and data center investment will continue to expand (24/7 Wall St., Yahoo Finance).

Macroeconomic/growth trends

Brookings estimates the scale of AI buildout to be $10.3T, exceeding the GDP ratio of railways and highways (IndexBox). The US GDP growth rate is higher than that of the G7 countries, and the AI boom is cited as one reason for this (Harici). On CNBC, Payne Capital's Courtney Garcia says AI buildout justifies economic growth and rising yields (CNBC). On the other hand, Reuters reported that researchers have pointed out that AI buildout funding poses systemic risks to the US, and Investopedia has positioned 2027 as the test for an AI spending boom (Reuters, Investopedia).

Productivity trends

Fortune contrasted this with Japanese companies paying older employees to "do nothing," while Western companies are pressing them to improve productivity through AI (Fortune). Microsoft Source reported that Rockwell Automation is combining AI and field expertise to help workers resolve issues faster. At CFO Dive, Gartner urged CFOs to have realistic expectations about the return on investment of AI (CFO Dive). In Japan, Yayoi reports that there is a team that achieved better results than a team that simply used AI, and was able to reduce development man-hours by 80% (atmarkit.itmedia.co.jp). Spiceworks pointed out that companies may be easily blaming AI for factors other than AI (Spiceworks).

Trends in employment and labor market

Fast Company reported that the AI boom has cut the number of new tech industry hires in half in New York City (Fast Company). layoffs.fyi continues to track AI layoffs (layoffs.fyi). GovInfoSecurity reports that AI is changing, not eliminating, cybersecurity jobs, and ExecutiveGov questions federal employees' readiness to handle AI agents (GovInfoSecurity, ExecutiveGov). Bloomberg has proposed "7 big ideas" to address the AI jobs crisis (Bloomberg.com). Alabama Daily News reports state needs partners to implement AI workforce development plan (Alabama Daily News)

Trends in energy/power demand

The New York Times reported that Google is trying to send an AI data center into space (The New York Times). Data Center Frontier reported that Amazon and Generac's partnership is drawing attention to backup power for AI infrastructure, and Morningstar reported that UL Solutions has launched a certification program for emerging power technologies for AI data centers (Data Center Frontier, Morningstar). Yahoo Finance reported that Berkshire Hathaway's Greg Abel called the demand for AI data centers a huge opportunity for Berkshire Energy (Yahoo Finance). Axios reported on the conflict between AI demand for electricity and the promotion of clean energy, and Nikkei Business reported that AI demand has caused electricity prices to soar in the United States, and that big tech companies such as Google have ``pledged'' to shoulder the burden of the increase (Axios, Nikkei Business online version).

Remarks by central banks, international organizations, and VIPs

None of the headlines collected this time were confirmed to have been made by the key figures being tracked (Lagarde, Ueda, Bailey, Georgieva, Cormann, Banga, Acemoglu, Brynjolfsson). On an institutional level, the IMF has reportedly pointed out that AI can transform productivity and economic policy (Vanguard News). The EU financial regulator has indicated that it will make AI and tokenization a supervisory priority in 2027 (Cryptonews.net). At the Philadelphia Fed's FinTech conference, AI was cited as one reason why underlying inflation, excluding oil and tariffs, remained at 2.5% to 3% and has not improved (TradingView). Breakingviews published a commentary stating that Europe has room to avoid the "Dark Ages" of AI (Breakingviews).

Trends in corporate capital investment

qz.com reported that AI buildout is becoming one of the biggest economic bets in U.S. history, and Global Macro Monitor called it a "$10 Trillion Bet," pointing out that AI capital investment has become the central macroeconomic story (qz.com, Global Macro Monitor). 24/7 Wall St. reported that Wells Fargo has lowered its S&P 500 target to 7,700 after analyzing that AI spending will break even in 2028. Yahoo Finance and Investing.com both reported that UBS views increased reliance on AI capital investment as a key growth risk (Yahoo Finance, Investing.com). michaelparekh.substack.com discussed capital investment trends including Gemini and DeepSeek (michaelparekh.substack.com). jbpress analyzed that Nvidia's acquisition of Hugging Face was aimed at defending the "open AI economic zone" (jbpress.ismedia.jp).

Trade and industrial policy

Fox Business, PBS, aol.com reported that President Trump and President Xi Jinping will hold a meeting at the White House to discuss trade and tariffs, as well as AI.(Fox Business, PBS, aol.com) CNBC reported that the Chinese side has confirmed that the first AI talks between the United States and China have been held, and has hinted at extending the trade truce. TV Tokyo's Morning Satellite featured the era of explosive spread of AI and the US-China summit (tv-tokyo.co.jp).

Integrated analysis: What is happening now

The fact that AI became a negotiating topic along with tariffs at the US-China summit shows that AI has become a central variable in trade policy, not just a technology competition (Fox Business, CNBC). At the same time, Wells Fargo and UBS's warnings about the sustainability of AI capital investment (24/7 Wall St., Yahoo Finance), the $10.3T buildout estimated by Brookings (IndexBox), and the systemic risks pointed out by Reuters (Reuters) suggest that while the AI investment boom supports macroeconomic growth, it is accumulating financial vulnerabilities. This expansion in capital investment is inextricably linked to the surge in electricity demand, and investments in backup power sources for data centers (Data Center Frontier) and Big Tech's pledge to pay for rising electricity rates (Nikkei Business Online Edition) show that the external costs of AI buildout are beginning to be passed on to electricity infrastructure and consumers. On the employment front, while progress is being made in reducing the number of new graduate hires (Fast Company) and continuously tracking layoffs (layoffs.fyi) through AI, there are also reports of demonstrations of improved productivity (atmarkit.itmedia.co.jp), and it appears that we are at the stage where the impact of AI on employment and its contribution to productivity can be observed simultaneously. The fact that the IMF and EU regulators are beginning to develop policy frameworks may indicate that we are at a stage where the economic impact of AI is beginning to be recognized as a supervisory issue at the level of central banks and international institutions (Vanguard News, Cryptonews.net).

Future points of interest

- How will AI-related export controls, tariffs, and investment regulations be adjusted as a result of the US-China summit? - How will the profitability risks of AI capital investment pointed out by Wells Fargo and UBS affect the stock market and credit market towards 2027-2028? - The impact of the rapid increase in power demand caused by AI on electricity prices, power grid investment, and employment structure may further expand in the future.